Palestinians carry
trays of sweets and an Egyptian flag (C) in front of a placard depicting
Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood's presidential candidate Mohamed Morsi in
Gaza City, JuneJERUSALEM - The political face-off in
Egypt between the military and Islamists following the presidential
election is being closely watched by Egypt's neighbors in Israel and the
Palestinian territories. And as with many issues the viewpoints vary
considerably.
Opinions are divided among Israelis and Palestinian groups over future
relations with Egypt although all agree those relations will continue to
be important.
The Muslim Brotherhood asserted that its candidate, Mohamed Morsi, won
the run-off election to be Egypt's next president. Egypt's governing
Supreme Council of the Armed Forces indicated it will accept the result
but it has reduced the president's authority and given itself
legislative powers while the elected parliament is dissolved.
The decree sets up a possible confrontation between two traditional
sources of power, the barracks and the mosque.
Peace treaty with Israel
Israel has been watching with concern. Its leaders attach great
importance to maintaining the peace treaty signed with Egypt 33 years
ago. Despite cool relations, the treaty is the basis for cooperation
between the two neighbors in many areas including security, commerce,
transportation, energy and diplomacy.
Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu underscored this view
recently.
He says he hopes any government that arises in Egypt, any president
elected in Egypt, will choose to honor the peace agreement. He says the
peace accord helped Egypt as much as it helped Israel, and he hopes that
the next government will understand it is in Egypt's interest no less
than Israel's.
The Muslim Brotherhood, which dominated Egypt's now-dissolved
parliament, has said it will respect all previous treaties. But some of
its members have suggested submitting the Israel treaty to a popular
referendum where its future would be much less certain.
The second major Israeli concern is the increasing lawlessness along the
border with Egypt's Sinai Peninsula. The upheaval in Egypt has led to a
rise in smuggling, human trafficking and terrorist attacks across the
border.
A Palestinian analyst in East Jerusalem, Mahdi Abdul Hadi, says Israel
is closely following events in Egypt.
"The Israeli government is sitting in a bunker, watching, keeping an
eye, trying to infiltrate here and there to get more information and
putting [forth] different scenarios, not for today but for five years
from now," said the analyst.
Hamas' reaction
The Muslim Brotherhood's assertion of election victory in Egypt brought
celebrations in the Gaza Strip, which is controlled by the Islamist
Hamas movement.
Hamas leader Ismail Radwan says relations with Egypt have improved since
last year's popular uprising brought the Muslim Brothers into the power
structure.
He says relations have improved a lot and he hopes what he calls "our
big sister" will help break the Israeli blockade on Gaza.
That blockade, imposed five years ago following the Hamas takeover of
Gaza, has seriously degraded living conditions in the territory.
The Egyptian government allows goods and construction materials to cross
through hundreds of illegal tunnels. But it continues to restrict the
movement of goods across the Rafah Crossing to Gaza.
Hamas hopes a new Egyptian government will open up the Rafah Crossing
and allow more legal trade.
The rival Fatah Movement, which controls the West Bank and the
Palestinian Authority, views the Egyptian election somewhat differently.
Fatah and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas enjoyed good
relations with Egypt's ousted president Hosni Mubarak, while the Mubarak
government viewed Hamas with suspicion. Hamas refuses to recognize
Israel and is labeled a terrorist group by Western governments.
A Fatah leader in Gaza, Diab Al-Louh, says he hopes Egypt's new
leadership will encourage Hamas to moderate its policies, soften its
stance on Israel and implement a reconciliation agreement with Fatah.
He says Fatah is committed to what was agreed upon and ready to
implement it fully.
A Gaza leader of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine,
Kayed Ghoul, believes a government led by the Muslim Brotherhood will be
pragmatic and focus first on reviving the Egyptian economy which has
been battered by 17 months of political upheaval.
He says this reality will reflect on the political positions of the
Muslim Brotherhood. They will likely keep the peace agreement with
Israel, he says, and try to have Hamas align its positions more with the
Brotherhood's.
A senior Hamas leader, Mahmoud Zahar, speaking on the West Bank radio
station Rai-FM, said he believes the rise of the Islamists will create a
more balanced Egyptian position toward the various Palestinian groups.
He says they will not be like Mubarak regime, pressuring Hamas, closing
all the crossings and borders and just allowing Fatah members or the
Israelis to pass.
Analyst Abdul Hadi says Egyptian politics is in turmoil. "We are
entering a new chapter. Uncertainty lies ahead," said Hadi.
He says this uncertainty lies in many areas. How will political Islam
relate to civil society? What role will Egypt's military play in
defending the country and the constitution and balancing the various
political groups? And finally, how will the various sectors of society
address the growing problems of security and economic distress?
Analysts say it will take time for the turbulence to subside. But they
note that Egypt values its relations with the various sides in Israel
and the Palestinian territories. And as a result whatever leadership
emerges in Cairo is likely to want to maintain links with all of them.
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